The dice is loaded heavily in favour of the ruling UPA and its allies in the next Presidential election in August as political corridors are already full of names as possible successors to incumbent A P J Abdul Kalam.

While the UPA and allies are far ahead of the BJP-led NDA, a clear picture is expected to emerge only after the next round of assembly polls including in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab slated early next year.

Opposition leaders concede that if the UPA and its allies hold together on the issue then the ruling alliance would have a smooth sailing in the election to find an occupant for the Raisina Hills.

A quick look at the strength of the main rivals in the states shows that the UPA, including some of its allies, has an edge with over 1,800 MLAs, some 700 more than the NDA.

The total value the of votes of the UA are estimated to be more than 4.6 lakh as against 3.3 lakhs for the BJP-led NDA, giving it a clear edge of over one lakh, in the electoral college whose total vote value is 10,98,882.

This is apart from the Left front strength of 1.1 lakh its bastions in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura.

The Samajwadi Party and the BSP, supporting the government from outside, have been categorised as ‘others’ which also included TDP, AIADMK, JD(S) and some other smaller parties which together account for a combined strength of over 1.32 lakhs.

While no political party has revealed its cards on the issue so far, the electoral arithmetic clearly favours the Congress-led UPA at present and the changes after the crucial assembly polls would have to be later taken into account.

The President is elected by the members of the electoral college consisting of members of both Houses of Parliament and legislative assemblies of States including Delhi and Puducherry. The UPA and its allies have majority in both Houses of Parliament.

The total number of members in the Electoral College for the Presidential election would be 4,896, the same as in 2002. This comprises 543 from Lok Sabha, 233 from Rajya Sabha and 4120 from assemblies.

While the value of each vote of an MP is 708, the value of vote of MLA in states differs. The highest value is 208 for a UP MLA while the lowest is seven for a Sikkim legislator. Incidentally all the 32 MLAs of the tiny state are of the UPA.

Uttar Pradesh with 403 MLAs has the capacity to tilt the balance in any neck-and-neck race as the total value of votes in the largest state of the Union was 83,824 as against the total value of votes of all states amounting to 5,49,474.

Though it is still early days but names of senior Congress leaders Karan Singh, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee and Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat are already doing the rounds in political circles as possible candidates for the Presidential election in July next year.

Though Kalam has ruled himself out for a second term, an opinion poll carried by a news weekly saw him getting “overwhelming” support.

While returning from his recent foreign tour, Vice President Shekhawat threw enough hints that he was not averse to having a go at the top office saying age was no hurdle for him. The 84-year-old leader’s handling of the affairs of Rajya Sabha have earned him all round kudos including from the Congress side.

Talk in Congress circles has centred around former Union Minister Karan Singh who is a noted scholar well versed in the Indian traditions and culture and is also seen as close to UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi.

Chatterjee is the first presiding officer of the Lok Sabha belonging to the Left parties which may be keen on having one of their leaders occupy the top slot.

If the ‘dalit card’ gains momentum, then Power Mnnser Sushilkumar Shinde, can turn out to be the dark horse. The former Maharashtra Chief Minister’s name also figures in the probables for the next Vice-President as Shekhawat is retiring in August.

In fact, Shinde had contested unsuccessfully against Shekhawat in the 2002 polls as a combined opposition candidate handpicked by Gandhi.